Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 26?

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Market context

Shanghai's weather on 26 May 2026 will be measured against historical May temperatures at Pudong International Airport, the official station used for settlement. Late May in Shanghai typically sits in the warm-to-hot range, with daily highs averaging 28–30°C, though extremes have reached into the mid-30s during heat waves. The current market pricing reflects substantial uncertainty about whether any particular temperature band will be the day's high, with the crowd assigning negligible probability to specific ranges at this distance from the event.

Historical May data from Pudong shows that temperatures exceeding 32°C occur in roughly one-third of years during this month, whilst readings above 35°C remain relatively rare but not unprecedented. The 2013 heat wave pushed May temperatures to 37°C in Shanghai, establishing a reference point for extreme-heat scenarios. Traders evaluating this contract should note that late-spring weather in the Yangtze River Delta region is shaped by the transition between spring and early summer monsoon patterns, making May inherently variable compared to more stable months.

The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 26 May, giving traders approximately 18 months to adjust positions as seasonal forecasts and climate patterns become clearer. Wunderground's historical data feed provides the binding resolution source, so traders should familiarise themselves with how that platform records daily highs at the Pudong station. Any significant climate anomalies or unusual atmospheric patterns reported in the months preceding May 2026 could shift market pricing materially.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legit? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.