Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 4?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 4 June 2026, Shanghai's highest temperature will be recorded at Pudong International Airport Station and fall into one of several discrete ranges measured in Celsius. The market currently prices all outcome ranges at 0% on Polygon, reflecting either incomplete liquidity or a technical settlement state rather than genuine indifference to the event. Traders holding conditional tokens for any temperature band are effectively holding positions on an unpriced contract; the USDC collateral backing these positions sits dormant until the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on the resolution date.

Shanghai's June climate is remarkably consistent. Historical data from Wunderground shows that daily highs in early June typically cluster between 28–32°C, with occasional spikes to 34–35°C during early heat waves. The city rarely experiences temperatures below 26°C or above 37°C in this period. The 0% crowd probability across all ranges suggests either that no trader has yet committed capital to this contract or that the market is awaiting price discovery; comparable weather markets on Polymarket for major cities usually show distributed probabilities reflecting seasonal norms and current meteorological forecasts.

The key variable is whether an anomalous weather system—a tropical depression, sustained high-pressure ridge, or monsoon surge—affects the Yangtze River Delta in early June 2026. China's China Meteorological Administration publishes seasonal outlooks and 10-day forecasts that typically become actionable three to five days before the settlement window. Any official alert for extreme heat or unusual atmospheric conditions would shift trader positioning. Until such signals emerge, the contract remains unpriced, leaving the full range of outcomes open to the first meaningful bid.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 4? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legit? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.