Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 30 June 2026 will determine the outcome of this Polymarket contract, which currently prices a 31% chance for the YES outcome. On-chain mechanics on Polygon, settled in USDC, show the frontrunner is 26°C at 48%, with 27°C trailing at 28%[1]. Historical June data indicates daily highs typically climb from 78°F to 85°F (25.6°C to 29.4°C), rarely dipping below 71°F (21.7°C) or exceeding 93°F (33.9°C)[2]. Recent local records reinforce this range; the highest temperature in the immediate period was 88.8°F (31.6°C) on 28 June 2026, while the lowest was 69.2°F (20.7°C) on 26 June 2026[3]. Long-term climatic data confirms a warming trend of 1.9°C per century in Shanghai, suggesting June temperatures may edge slightly higher than historical averages[4].

Traders must monitor the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau’s daily forecasts and any sudden shifts in the East Asian monsoon system, which drives humidity and cloud cover in late June. The settlement relies exclusively on Wunderground data from the Pudong station, making real-time sensor readings the critical dependency[1]. Recent news highlights Shanghai’s vulnerability to extreme heat, as the city broke a century-old May record of 35.7°C in 2023, demonstrating its capacity for rapid temperature spikes under specific atmospheric conditions[8]. With the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on 30 June, the market will resolve based on the single highest temperature recorded for all times on that day, meaning a brief heatwave could decisively alter the outcome[1]. The current 31% probability implies the market expects temperatures to stay below the implied threshold, but the volatility of Shanghai’s subtropical monsoon climate warrants caution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Legit? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.