Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 23?

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Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 23 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Polymarket prices this contract today with a 0% implied probability for the "YES" outcome, suggesting the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the specific range being traded. This near-zero pricing is stark when viewed against historical data for late June in Shanghai, where the hot season typically begins around 17 June and daily highs regularly exceed 30°C (86°F), often reaching 35°C (95°F) during sunny spells [3][5].

Historical averages for June at Pudong show daily highs climbing from 77°F to 83°F, rarely dropping below 69°F or exceeding 92°F, with the hottest month of the year occurring in this period [3][7]. The current 0% probability appears to ignore these consistent patterns, as even recent forecasts for June 2026 predict highs ranging from 77° to 96°F, with overnight lows between 68° and 79°F [4]. A trader should scrutinise whether this pricing reflects a genuine expectation of unusually cool weather or a market inefficiency regarding the standard summer heat.

Traders must monitor the Shanghai Meteorological Center for any extreme weather alerts, as the region recently issued an orange alert following three consecutive days of high temperatures, with reports noting temperatures reaching 60°C at airport sites [6]. While this figure likely represents a sensor error or specific surface reading rather than ambient air temperature, such alerts signal active heat management and potential volatility. The settlement relies on Wunderground data for the Pudong station, so any on-chain mechanics involving USDC, Polygon, or conditional tokens will resolve strictly based on that verified hourly record, making the timing of the next weather update a critical dependency for position management.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.