Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 2 July 2026 will determine this market’s outcome, with the crowd currently pricing a 0% chance that the temperature falls into the specified range. On Polymarket, this contract trades on the Polygon network using USDC, where conditional tokens reflect the collective belief that the day’s peak heat will not match the threshold set by the market maker.

Historical July data for Shanghai shows average highs between 26–31°C, with peaks often reaching 35°C or higher during the hottest hours, typically around 3 PM. In July 2025, the temperature hit 38°C, and climate records indicate that 29 July is the day with the highest average temperature in July, recording 32.5°C. These comparable cases suggest that a 0% probability is unusually low unless the range in question is set far below typical summer highs.

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates from Wunderground and local meteorological announcements, as sudden shifts in cloud cover or rain can alter peak temperatures. Recent forecasts from AccuWeather indicate daily highs in Shanghai for July 2026 ranging from 83°F to 94°F (28.3°C–34.4°C), with overnight lows between 76°F and 82°F. Any official heatwave alerts or changes in the monsoon pattern could serve as catalysts that shift on-chain pricing before the settlement window closes on 2026-07-02T12:00:00Z.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.