Highest temperature in Seoul on May 31?

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Market context

Seoul's maximum temperature on 31 May 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and resolved against historical Weather Underground data. The Polymarket contract currently prices this event at 0% YES across all temperature bands, reflecting either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or minimal trading activity. Settlement hinges on the single highest temperature reading recorded at that station throughout the calendar day, converted to Celsius, with traders holding conditional tokens on whichever bracket contains that figure.

Late May in Seoul typically sits within a warm but not extreme range. Historical data from the past decade shows maximum temperatures on 31 May clustering between 24°C and 28°C, with occasional outliers reaching 30°C during particularly hot years. The 2018 heatwave pushed Seoul's late-May highs to 29–31°C, whilst cooler years have seen maxima settle around 22–24°C. This historical spread suggests the market's current zero probability reflects either a pricing error or that traders have already committed capital to a single band, leaving no liquidity for alternatives.

Traders monitoring this contract should track South Korean meteorological forecasts released in late May 2026, particularly from the Korea Meteorological Administration, which publishes extended outlooks 10–14 days ahead. The East Asian monsoon pattern and any early-season high-pressure systems moving across the Korean Peninsula will be decisive. Incheon's coastal location means sea-surface temperatures and marine air masses can suppress daytime highs compared to inland Seoul, a factor worth cross-referencing against broader regional forecasts closer to settlement.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.