Highest temperature in Seoul on May 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 May 2026, Seoul's highest temperature will be recorded at Incheon International Airport Station and settled against Wunderground's historical data. The market currently prices at 0% YES, meaning traders are collectively assigning negligible probability to any specific temperature range—a reflection of genuine uncertainty roughly seven months out, where even seasonal forecasts carry wide confidence intervals. USDC settlement on Polygon will execute once the daily high is finalised and verified against the resolution source.

Seoul's May climate sits at a seasonal inflection point. Historical data from the past two decades shows May 26 highs typically range between 22–28°C, with occasional outliers pushing toward 30°C during warmer years. The 2023 May 26 high reached 26.1°C; in 2022 it was 24.8°C. These precedents matter because they establish the plausible range traders should anchor to when conditional token prices eventually reflect genuine conviction rather than the current flat pricing. Incheon Airport Station readings tend to run 1–2°C cooler than central Seoul due to maritime influence, a systematic bias worth accounting for when evaluating any range.

Traders monitoring this contract should track spring weather pattern forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration, particularly any signals of early heat waves or anomalous warming across East Asia in April and May 2026. El Niño or La Niña phase transitions, typically announced by December, influence regional temperature trajectories. As settlement approaches, conditional token liquidity will likely concentrate around the most probable ranges once seasonal forecasts narrow the cone of uncertainty—currently too wide to price meaningfully.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on May 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legit? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.