Highest temperature in Seoul on June 29?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 29 June 2026, Seoul will experience its peak daytime heat, with the Incheon International Airport Station expected to record the highest temperature for the day. Historical data shows June in Seoul typically ranges from 19°C to 28°C, though extremes have occurred; the highest maximum recorded this month was 34.0°C on 19 June, while the lowest minimum was 15.6°C on 6 June[1][6]. With the current crowd-implied probability at 18% YES for a higher-than-expected range, traders should weigh whether late-June humidity and the onset of the monsoon season—usually beginning late June to mid-July—will suppress temperatures or if a heat spike similar to early July’s 37.1°C in 2023 could recur[1][8].

Key catalysts include the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts and any sudden shifts in regional pressure systems that could trigger unseasonal warmth. Meteorologists have warned that South Korea’s summer could be its hottest yet, citing July 2023’s record-breaking 37.1°C in Seoul as a precedent for extreme heat events[8]. Traders monitoring this contract on Polymarket should watch for real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, and note that settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on 29 June, with USDC payouts on the Polygon network via conditional tokens. Any deviation from the typical 28°C ceiling, especially if humidity rises sharply before the monsoon, could significantly alter the outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 29? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Legit?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.