Highest temperature in Seoul on June 27?

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Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 27 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data for Seoul in June shows typical daily highs between 18°C and 27°C, though late May and early June can reach 27°C to 32°C with guaranteed higher humidity [3][9]. The monsoon season typically spans June to July, bringing heavy rains that often suppress peak temperatures, yet summer days can still become extremely hot if the rain lulls [5]. Given that the current crowd-implied probability for a "YES" outcome is 0%, the market appears to be pricing in a scenario where temperatures stay within the lower, more common ranges, aligning with the 69% probability assigned to 28°C and 30% for 29°C [2].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts and Wunderground’s hourly updates for any sudden shifts in cloud cover or precipitation, as these are the primary catalysts for temperature spikes [7]. Recent travel guidance emphasises that while May and June generally offer agreeable conditions with little rainfall, the transition into the monsoon period increases the risk of sudden downpours that could cool the air [4]. The resolution depends entirely on the first data point published for 27 June on Wunderground, meaning any delay in reporting or anomalies in the station’s sensors could affect the final outcome [1]. With USDC settled on the Polygon network via conditional tokens, the on-chain mechanics ensure real-time price updates as traders react to these weather dependencies, making the 28°C and 29°C ranges the most liquid positions to watch [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.