Highest temperature in Seoul on June 25?

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Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 25 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Polymarket prices this contract today with a 0% implied probability for any "YES" outcome, suggesting the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the specific range being traded. This near-zero pricing is stark when viewed against historical June data for Seoul, where average highs typically reach 26–28°C, with recent records showing peaks of 34°C on 19 June 2026[9]. Early June often feels like extended spring, but late June becomes noticeably hotter and more humid as the monsoon season approaches, with daytime temperatures frequently ranging from 19 to 28°C[1][2]. The 0% probability implies the market expects a temperature significantly lower than these norms, perhaps due to an anticipated cold front or unseasonal cloud cover, though such a drop would be an extreme deviation from the typical warm, humid early-summer pattern.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for any sudden shifts in air pressure or incoming cloud systems that could suppress temperatures below the expected range[4]. The primary catalyst is the timing of the rainy season, which usually begins in late June and can bring cooler, wetter conditions that lower daytime highs[1][6]. Additionally, watch for announcements regarding local weather anomalies or unusual precipitation patterns that might disrupt the standard warming trend. While humidity often exceeds 80% in late June, creating a real-feel temperature of 35°C+, actual air temperatures can dip if heavy rain occurs[5]. The settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 25 June, so any weather event occurring in the early morning hours will be critical. The conditional tokens on Polygon, settled in USDC, will resolve based solely on the Wunderground data for Incheon Airport, making precise tracking of that station’s hourly readings essential for accurate trading[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.