Highest temperature in Seoul on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded on 6 July 2026 at Incheon International Airport, a location that often mirrors Seoul’s summer heat but sits slightly closer to the coast. Polymarket prices this contract today with a 0% probability for the YES outcome, implying the crowd believes the temperature will not reach the specified threshold, despite July being historically hot and humid in South Korea.

Historical data frames this low probability with caution: July in Seoul typically sees daytime highs between 25–30°C, with occasional peaks nudging 30°C or higher, and humidity pushing the “feels like” temperature above 34°C at midday [1][2]. In 2025, South Korea recorded its second-hottest July since 1973, with an average of 27.1°C, and Seoul hit 37.7°C—the highest early-July temperature in 117 years of records [6][10]. Such extremes suggest that while 0% is the current market stance, comparable years show significant volatility and potential for record-breaking heat.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for cloud cover, precipitation probability, and wind direction, as these directly influence peak temperatures [5]. The onset of the monsoon season (Jangma), which runs from late June to mid-July, often brings short but heavy rainfalls that can temporarily suppress heat, though humidity remains high [1]. Additionally, watch for any updates on regional heat advisories or tropical night counts, as South Korea experienced 22 tropical nights in July 2025—a historic sweltering pattern that may recur [7]. These dependencies are critical for assessing whether the 0% market price is justified or if an upside surprise is possible.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on July 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Legit?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Legit? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.