Highest temperature in Seoul on July 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 3 July 2026, Seoul will experience its peak daily temperature, a real-world metric that directly determines the outcome of this prediction contract. The market currently prices the chance of a specific high-temperature range at 0% YES, reflecting the crowd’s view that the threshold is unlikely to be met under typical July conditions. Settling on the Incheon International Airport Station via Wunderground data, this USDC-denominated bet on the Polygon network relies on conditional tokens that resolve only when the recorded Celsius value matches the defined range.

Historical July data frames this 0% probability as rational, given that Seoul’s average highs typically hover between 25°C and 30°C, with occasional spikes nudging just above 30°C [2]. While the monsoon season (Jangma) brings intense, short bursts of rain that can temporarily lower temperatures to 18°C after a shower, the humidity often elevates the “feels like” temperature to over 34°C during midday [1]. The wettest month in South Korea, July sees humidity levels above 80%, yet the average high remains in the mid-to-high 20s, rarely sustaining the extreme heat required to trigger the contract [1][2].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s heatwave forecasts and any passing weather fronts that could drag temperatures down to 27°C or 28°C [4][7]. A stronger heat dome pushing the high into 30°C or 31°C territory remains the primary catalyst for a potential shift in probability, though cloud cover or rain windows of 60–90 minutes often interrupt sustained heat [2][7]. Recent reports indicate temperatures are rising 2–3 weeks earlier than last year, suggesting a volatile summer where heat domes may clash with torrential rains [8]. No moralising on trading is needed; the on-chain mechanics simply await the definitive Wunderground reading at 12:00 UTC on 3 July 2026.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on July 3? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Legit? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.