Highest temperature in Seoul on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 2 July 2026, a date falling squarely within South Korea’s hot, humid monsoon season. Historical data confirms that July in Seoul typically sees daytime highs between 25–30°C, with occasional spikes nudging 30°C or higher, while humidity often pushes the “feels like” temperature above 34°C [1][2]. Despite this, the current Polymarket price for the “YES” outcome sits at 0%, suggesting the crowd believes the temperature will not reach the threshold defined in the contract—likely a range above 30°C. This stark divergence from seasonal norms mirrors the July 1 market, where the 30°C bracket surged to 69.5% probability just hours before resolution, indicating that traders are highly sensitive to intraday weather shifts rather than long-term averages [4].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for heatwave alerts and precipitation windows, as July rainfall in Seoul arrives in intense, 60–90-minute bursts that can temporarily suppress peak temperatures [2][7]. The onset of the Jangma monsoon, which began in Jeju on Tuesday night and is spreading across southern Korea, may bring heavier cloud cover and rain to the Incheon area, potentially capping the day’s maximum temperature below the contract threshold [3]. Additionally, the Sinchon Water Gun Festival in late July, though not on 2 July, signals heightened public awareness of extreme heat and humidity, reinforcing the need to watch real-time Wunderground data for the Incheon station as the settlement window closes [1]. With USDC liquidity on Polygon and conditional tokens driving price discovery, the 0% probability reflects a cautious stance on whether monsoon rains will override typical summer heat on this specific day.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on July 2? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Legit? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.