Highest temperature in Qingdao on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 7 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the current crowd-implied probability of a “YES” resolution sitting at 0%. This contract trades on Polymarket using USDC on the Polygon network, where conditional tokens represent the binary outcome and prices reflect real-time on-chain sentiment rather than abstract weather forecasts.

Historical data shows that Qingdao’s July highs typically range between 29°C and 29.4°C, rarely exceeding 32°C, with the absolute peak reaching 33.1°C on 9 August 2018[4]. Given that the market resolves to a specific temperature range and the current probability is 0%, traders should interpret this as the crowd believing the threshold is unlikely to be met under normal climatic conditions[3][7].

Traders must monitor daily weather bulletins from Wunderground and any sudden shifts in regional cloud cover or wind patterns that could elevate temperatures unexpectedly[6]. While no immediate announcements are scheduled, the settlement window ends 12:00 UTC on 7 July 2026, making real-time data from the airport station critical for accurate positioning[6]. Recent forecasts from AccuWeather suggest stable conditions, but any deviation could alter the outcome[8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Legit?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.