Highest temperature in Paris on May 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The market currently prices all outcomes at 0% YES, indicating either insufficient liquidity or that traders have not yet positioned themselves ahead of the settlement window closing at midday UTC on that date. USDC deposits on Polygon will determine the conditional token distribution once Wunderground's historical data confirms the actual peak temperature for the day.

Paris experiences highly variable spring weather in late May, with historical records showing maximum temperatures ranging from 15°C on unusually cool days to 28°C during warm spells. The 1976 heatwave and more recent warm Mays provide reference points: 26 May 2003 reached 27.5°C, whilst cooler years have seen peaks around 18–20°C. Current market pricing suggests traders are awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a low-priority contract given the settlement date remains months away.

Meteorological forecasts become actionable roughly two weeks before the target date, when European weather models converge on likely conditions. The Météo-France outlook for late May 2026 will be the primary catalyst for position-building, particularly if anomalies develop in Atlantic pressure systems or Mediterranean warming patterns. Traders should monitor spring 2026 temperature trends across northern Europe; sustained warmth in April and early May would shift probability mass toward higher temperature ranges, whilst a cool spring pattern would favour lower outcomes.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.