Highest temperature in Paris on May 25?

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Market context

The market is pricing the peak temperature at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 25 May 2026, with settlement determined by historical weather data from Wunderground. The 0% crowd probability currently assigned suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature bands available or treating this as a low-liquidity contract awaiting price discovery. On Polygon, positions settle in USDC conditional tokens once the resolution window closes at 12:00 UTC on the settlement date.

May temperatures at Le Bourget typically range between 15–22°C, though extremes have occasionally pushed toward 28–30°C during heat waves. Historical data from the past decade shows that late May in the Paris region experiences variable spring weather, with warm spells interspersed by cooler Atlantic systems. The 2022 European heat wave saw Paris reach 35°C in late June, but May itself has remained more moderate. Traders should reference Météo-France's seasonal outlooks and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble models released in April 2026, which typically offer reliable guidance for late-spring conditions across northern France.

Catalysts affecting the outcome include the North Atlantic Oscillation phase in spring 2026 and any persistent high-pressure systems over continental Europe in the weeks preceding the settlement date. Real-time monitoring of synoptic charts in early May will signal whether blocking anticyclones are developing. The actual resolution hinges entirely on the Wunderground historical record for Le Bourget, making data availability and station maintenance the only operational dependency once the day concludes.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.