Highest temperature in Paris on May 23?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 23 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The market currently prices all outcomes at 0% YES, reflecting that no single temperature band has attracted meaningful trading volume or conviction. Settlement depends on historical weather data from Wunderground, with the final reading locked in once the day concludes and meteorological records are published.

Paris experiences highly variable spring weather in late May, with historical highs ranging from 20°C to 28°C during this period. The 0% probability across all ranges suggests either thin liquidity or that traders are awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts before committing capital. Comparable May temperature markets on Polymarket have typically seen activity concentrate around the 22–26°C band for Paris, though outlier years—particularly during heat waves—have pushed readings above 28°C. The current flat pricing likely reflects uncertainty about whether 2026 will follow typical patterns or align with recent warming trends observed across northern Europe.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasts from mid-May onwards, particularly from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Spring heat waves in France have become more frequent; the May 2022 heat event saw Paris exceed 27°C, whilst cooler springs like 2021 remained below 23°C. Once conditional tokens settle on Polygon, resolution hinges entirely on Wunderground's historical data pull from Le Bourget station, making the data source itself the critical dependency rather than any external announcement.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.