Highest temperature in Paris on May 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is currently pricing this Paris temperature contract with the market leaning hard towards the 29°C range, and near-zero money on the lowest bands. That matters because settlement is tied to the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 22 May, not the city-wide feeling or a forecast headline. Traders are buying and selling conditional tokens in USDC on Polygon, so the live price is the crowd’s best estimate of where the official noon-to-noon reading will land once Wunderground finalises the day’s history page.

Late-May Paris is often warm enough for mid-to-high 20s Celsius, but the historical profile still leaves room for movement. Climate data for the city shows average May highs around 20°C, with daily highs typically climbing through the month and occasionally reaching the high 20s or low 30s. Recent market pricing on adjacent dates also suggests a warm spell is being contemplated: the May 23 contract has traded with 30°C and 31°C near the front, which implies traders are watching whether this stretch peaks around the same period rather than cooling sharply overnight.

The main catalysts are the short-range forecast updates for Île-de-France, cloud cover and any shift in wind direction ahead of the afternoon maximum, plus whether temperatures at the airport station can outperform broader Paris readings. Paris-Le Bourget sits north-east of the centre, so airport conditions can differ from the city core by a degree or two. The key dependencies are simple: a sunnier, drier afternoon would support the upper brackets, while any late cloud or marine influence would pull the final peak back towards the mid-to-high 20s. Wunderground’s final observation, once locked in, is what settles the contract.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.