Highest temperature in Paris on June 22?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Paris temperature contract at **0% YES** today, which means the on-chain USDC market on Polygon is assigning no weight to a top reading in the relevant settlement band despite the live heat risk already being in place. Because the market resolves off the **highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station** on 22 June 2026, traders are effectively speculating on a single-day maximum rather than the broader Paris forecast, with conditional tokens paying out according to the final Wunderground reading.

For context, June in Paris is usually mild, with typical highs around the low 20s Celsius, but that seasonal baseline is not the right guide this year. Recent reporting points to an intense early-summer heat event across France, with forecasts for Paris and Île-de-France calling for a historic heatwave and peaks near **40°C**. Reuters reported on 22 June that temperatures in Paris could climb above **40C** for the first time on a June day, which is the kind of setup that can quickly overpower an apparently mispriced market once traders reassess the upper tail of the distribution. [8][4]

A trader watching this contract should focus on same-day weather updates for Paris-Le Bourget, not citywide averages or overnight lows. The key catalysts are forecast revisions, cloud cover, wind direction, and any afternoon convection that could cap the high before the station prints its maximum; official heatwave guidance and media coverage of the France-wide emergency response can also shift expectations intraday. Sortiraparis described the week of 22–28 June as defined by a historic heatwave in Île-de-France, with the hottest period concentrated from Monday to Thursday, which is precisely the sort of dependency that matters when the market settles on one station’s recorded high. [1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Paris on June 22? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.