Highest temperature in Paris on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 4 July 2026 is currently priced by the Polymarket crowd as almost certain to fall within the 29–31°C range, with the 30°C outcome commanding a 96% probability and the 31°C option holding just 5% [1]. This on-chain pricing, settled in USDC on the Polygon network via conditional tokens, reflects a market consensus that lingering high pressure and southerly flow will deliver a warm but not extreme summer day, starkly contrasting the 0% probability assigned to temperatures exceeding 31°C.

Historical July data for Paris shows average highs of 26°C, yet daily extremes have ranged from 20°C to 43°C, with the national record of 43°C set in 2019 during a severe heatwave [2]. While recent weeks in western Europe have seen brutal temperatures, including a record 44.3°C in Landes, the specific meteorological setup for Paris-Le Bourget on this date suggests a more moderate peak, aligning with the crowd’s tight confidence in the 30°C bracket rather than the outlier highs seen elsewhere [4].

Traders should monitor the final 24-hour forecast updates from AccuWeather, which currently predict daily highs between 74°F and 99°F (20°C–37°C) for July 2026, as any sudden shift in cloud cover or wind direction could disrupt the current high-pressure stability [5]. The settlement depends entirely on the Wunderground record for the Paris-Le Bourget station, so real-time checks of that specific feed are essential, particularly if the southerly flow intensifies or weakens before the 12:00 UTC cutoff on 4 July [1]. No further announcements are expected, making the live weather data the sole catalyst for any potential price movement in the conditional tokens.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Legit?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.