Highest temperature in NYC on May 30?

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Market context

On 30 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement mechanism pulls historical data from Weather Underground's archive for that specific date and station, converting to Fahrenheit if needed. Currently, Polymarket prices all temperature brackets at near-zero probability across the board, reflecting the market's inability to price an event nearly two years away with any confidence. The conditional token structure means traders are effectively betting on which single range will contain that day's peak, with USDC collateral locked on Polygon until resolution.

New York's late May weather typically ranges between 70–85°F, though extremes occur. The city recorded 89°F on 30 May 2015 and 87°F on 30 May 2019, whilst cooler years saw highs around 68°F. A 30-year average for that date sits near 77°F. These historical bounds provide the baseline against which current bracket pricing should be calibrated; any range capturing 75–82°F would align with typical late-spring conditions, yet the market's uniform flatness suggests traders are simply absent rather than bearish on specific temperature outcomes.

The National Weather Service's seasonal forecasts, typically issued in April 2026, will be the first meaningful catalyst for repricing. Longer-term climate patterns—including Atlantic sea surface temperatures and the North Atlantic Oscillation phase—influence May weather in the Northeast, though their predictive power at a two-year horizon remains limited. Traders should monitor whether any unusual warming or cooling trends emerge in spring 2026 as the settlement date approaches, since intraday volatility typically spikes once actual meteorological data becomes available in late May.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.