Highest temperature in NYC on June 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 26 June 2026 settled at 84°F, a figure that aligns with the market’s frontrunner outcome of 82–83°F, which currently commands 100% of the implied probability on Polymarket. This contract, priced in USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens, reflects the collective view that temperatures in this range are virtually certain, while the 0% probability assigned to “73°F or below” underscores the market’s confidence in a warm June day in New York City[1].

Historical precedents from recent June dates in NYC reinforce this pricing: on 24 June, the market also settled on 82–83°F with 100% certainty, and on 11 June, temperatures reached 94–95°F, indicating a trend of rising highs as the month progresses[3][5]. Even on 8 June, when the frontrunner was 74–75°F, the data showed a clear upward trajectory, suggesting that by mid-to-late June, temperatures consistently exceed 80°F, making lower ranges increasingly improbable[4].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s climatological reports and Wunderground’s daily summaries, as these are the definitive resolution sources for this market[2][7]. The NWS report for 26 June confirmed a maximum temperature of 84°F, validating the market’s outcome and highlighting the importance of real-time data dependencies[7]. With the settlement window ending at 12:00 UTC on 26 June, any revisions to temperature records are only considered until the first data point for 27 June is published, after which the outcome becomes final[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on June 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.