Highest temperature in NYC on June 24?

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Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 24 June 2026, with current National Weather Service models pointing to a peak near 82–85 °F. On Polymarket, this contract is priced with the 82–83 °F range commanding a 99% frontrunner probability, while the 0% YES price for the broader market reflects a specific, narrow resolution condition that traders have already priced out as virtually impossible. The on-chain mechanics operate via USDC on Polygon, where conditional tokens settle automatically once Wunderground publishes the first data point for the following calendar day, confirming all observations for 24 June are complete.

Historical June weather in New York frames this probability, as the average high for the month sits at 83 °F, with recent daily highs ranging from 75 °F to 89 °F. Comparable cases from the last decade show that temperatures rarely deviate far from this average, making the 82–83 °F band the statistically dominant outcome. The current market pricing aligns tightly with this long-term norm, suggesting traders view any significant deviation as an outlier event rather than a probable scenario.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily forecast updates and any sudden shifts in regional humidity or cloud cover, which could push temperatures toward the 84–85 °F range. A recent New York Times report from April highlighted how East Coast heatwaves can spike temperatures to 90 °F, though such events remain infrequent in June. The key dependency is the timely publication of Wunderground’s historical data, as settlement cannot occur until the first data point for 25 June is released, confirming the 24 June record is final.

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Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on June 24? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legit? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.