Highest temperature in NYC on June 22?

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Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 22 June 2026, which will resolve this Polymarket contract to a specific Fahrenheit range. Today, the market prices the "YES" outcome at 0%, implying the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the offered range, likely due to the extreme heatwave currently gripping the Northeast. Historical context frames this probability sharply: on 19 June 2026, a similar market resolved to 82–83°F[3], while Central Park recently hit 102°F on 21 June, marking the hottest June day in recorded history[4]. This suggests the current 0% price may be an underreaction if the offered range caps below 90°F, given that the National Weather Service has issued excessive heat warnings across almost every county[4].

Traders must monitor the settlement mechanics on Polygon, where USDC liquidity determines the final conditional token payout once Wunderground publishes the first data point for 23 June[1]. The primary catalyst is the persistence of the dangerous heatwave, which the National Weather Service forecasts could last until the weekend[4]. With light winds and elevated UV levels limiting cooling relief, the LaGuardia station is likely to record temperatures near or above its 2012 record of 98°F[5]. Any delay in the resolution source publishing the daily high, or revisions to the temperature data before the 23 June datapoint, will directly impact the on-chain settlement timing[1]. Investors should watch for updates from the National Weather Service regarding the heatwave's duration, as this dependency dictates whether the temperature breaches the market's upper threshold.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.