Highest temperature in NYC on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the peak heat expected at LaGuardia Airport on 7 July 2026, where the highest recorded temperature in degrees Fahrenheit will determine the market outcome. Today, Polymarket prices this contract with a 4% implied probability for the "YES" position, suggesting the crowd views a record-breaking high as unlikely despite the current heatwave. This pricing reflects on-chain mechanics where USDC settles conditional tokens on the Polygon network, locking in liquidity based on current weather forecasts rather than abstract speculation.

Historical data frames this low probability against recent extremes, yet the threshold for a new record remains high. LaGuardia recently hit 102°F on a Thursday, breaking a daily high record, and set a new midnight milestone of 94°F, surpassing the 93°F record from July 2013 [1][3]. While July 2026 forecasts suggest daily highs between 81°F and 99°F with overnight lows of 68°F to 83°F [4], the 104°F spike recorded earlier in July [6] shows volatility. However, the 4% price implies traders doubt the temperature will exceed the specific range required for a "YES" resolution, given that the recent 102°F peak did not trigger a market-wide record shift in the same bracket.

Traders must monitor immediate meteorological announcements and the specific Wunderground data feed for KLGA, as the settlement relies entirely on the highest temperature recorded for all times on that day. The National Weather Service and local heat advisories will be critical catalysts, especially with AAA reporting over 71 million travellers affected by extreme East Coast heat [9]. Any sudden escalation in the heatwave, similar to the surge that pushed LaGuardia to 104°F [6], could shift the probability, but current schedules suggest stable conditions within the forecasted 81–99°F band [4]. The dependency on the gear icon temperature setting to toggle between °F and °C ensures the resolution source remains unambiguous for the final tally.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 7? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Legit?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Legit? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.