Highest temperature in NYC on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 6 July 2026, a date that historically sits within New York’s peak summer heatwave window. Current crowd-implied probability for the 74–75°F range is 0% YES, suggesting traders expect significantly higher temperatures, likely aligning with recent extreme patterns where LaGuardia hit 102°F and even 104°F during the 2026 heatwave [1][3].

Historical comparables frame this low probability as rational: LaGuardia recorded 94°F at midnight on a recent record-breaking night, shattering the 93°F benchmark from 2013, while July 2026 forecasts show daily highs ranging 81–99°F with overnight lows still warm [1][5]. The 74–75°F band is implausible given that JFK and LaGuardia both tied or exceeded 99–104°F in early July 2026, confirming that mid-summer NYC temperatures routinely breach 100°F during active heatwaves [3][6].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily heatwave advisories and any scheduled updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, for real-time temperature logs [1]. Recent news from FOX Weather confirms that heat lingered into the night with LaGuardia reaching 102°F, indicating that sustained high-pressure systems are the primary catalyst for extreme readings [1]. Conditional tokens on Polygon, settled in USDC, will reflect these on-chain price movements as new data arrives, making the 2026-07-06 settlement window critical for final resolution [8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Legit?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.