Highest temperature in NYC on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 4 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the settlement window closing at noon UTC on 4 July 2026. Today, Polymarket prices the contract such that the 98–99°F range holds the frontrunner position at 41% probability, while the 96–97°F range sits just behind at 39%, reflecting a collective view that extreme heat is likely despite the current crowd-implied 0% chance for any outcome below 95°F[1].

Historical precedents frame this probability sharply, as LaGuardia recently recorded its warmest midnight temperature ever at 94°F, a milestone that underscores how heat can persist and intensify through the night[3][6]. Furthermore, on a recent July 4, the station hit 104°F, shattering the old record of 101°F and proving that NYC can surpass even Phoenix in summer intensity[4]. AccuWeather forecasts for July 2026 suggest daily highs ranging from 81°F to 99°F, aligning with the market’s lean toward the upper end of that spectrum[5].

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates from the National Weather Service and Wunderground, as these platforms provide the official resolution data for the highest temperature recorded at any time on the day[2]. The National Weather Service currently shows readings of 91°F at midday, but the critical dependency is the overnight and early morning trajectory, which could push the peak higher[2]. Recent Fox Weather reports highlight that record-breaking midnight temperatures often precede extreme daytime highs, making the 24-hour cycle a key catalyst to watch[7]. No announcements are required, but the on-chain mechanics on Polygon using USDC and conditional tokens will execute the settlement automatically once the Wunderground data is confirmed[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 4? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Legit?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.