Highest temperature in NYC on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 2 July 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. Polymarket prices this contract today at 75c for the YES outcome, despite the crowd-implied probability for the specific range being 0%, creating a sharp divergence between platform liquidity and resolution odds. Traders on Polygon are using USDC to back conditional tokens, betting that the on-chain settlement will reflect a temperature exceeding the current threshold before the 2026-07-02T12:00:00Z window closes.

Historical data frames how to interpret this 0% probability, as LaGuardia has seen extreme heat in recent decades. The all-time record for the station is 107°F, recorded on 3 July 1966, while 2 July 1966 saw a peak of 101°F[7]. Other records for 2 July include Newark Airport reaching 103°F in 1901, suggesting that temperatures above 90°F are plausible in early July[6]. The AccuWeather forecast for July 2026 at LaGuardia indicates daily highs ranging from 81°F to 99°F, making the current 0% probability for the higher range appear statistically conservative given the seasonal volatility[4].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service climatological reports and real-time updates from Weather Underground, the official resolution source for this market[5]. A recent Yahoo News report highlights that dangerous, record-breaking heat is possible across New York and New Jersey, with specific warnings for early July peaks[6]. The dependency is the publication of the first data point for 2 July on the Wunderground platform; until this occurs, the market cannot resolve, and any sudden shifts in forecast models could drastically alter the conditional token pricing on-chain.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Legit?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Legit? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.