Highest temperature in Munich on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Munich Airport on 1 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the current crowd-implied probability for a "YES" resolution sitting at 0%. On Polymarket, this contract is priced in USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens, where the frontrunner outcome is 21°C at 77% probability, followed by 22°C at 21%[1]. Today’s BBC Weather forecast for Munich Airport shows thundery showers with a high of 21°C, aligning closely with the market’s leading prediction[5].

Historical July data for Munich International Airport indicates daily highs typically range between 72°F and 75°F (22°C–24°C), rarely exceeding 87°F (31°C)[6]. While Germany has experienced extreme heatwaves recently, with temperatures reaching 38°C in Munich during a July 2023 event that ended by 4 July[2], such peaks are outliers rather than norms. The current 0% probability for a "YES" likely reflects the market’s expectation that temperatures will stay within the standard 21°C–22°C band, consistent with long-term averages.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, for any sudden shifts in temperature as the day progresses[1]. Key catalysts include announcements from the German Weather Service regarding high-pressure systems or incoming cooler air from the north, which could alter the day’s peak temperature[4]. With the settlement window ending on 1 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC, on-chain liquidity and price movements will hinge on these meteorological dependencies rather than abstract speculation.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Legit?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.