Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Mexico City's highest temperature on 25 May 2026 will be recorded at Benito Juárez International Airport, the official weather station used for settlement. The market currently prices this contract at 0% YES across all temperature ranges, reflecting the settlement window closing at midday on the date itself—traders cannot wait for final readings before the contract expires. This timing constraint means positions must be held through the morning and early afternoon, with no opportunity to adjust based on actual conditions as they develop.

Historical May temperatures at Mexico City's airport show a consistent pattern. The average high in May sits around 28–29°C, with extreme highs occasionally reaching 32–34°C during particularly warm years. The 0% probability across all ranges suggests either technical issues with market initialisation or extremely low liquidity, as even the widest temperature bands should carry non-zero probability given climatological norms. Comparable May days at the station have produced highs between 26°C and 33°C over recent decades, establishing the plausible range for settlement.

Traders should monitor Mexico City's weather patterns in late April and early May 2026, particularly any anomalous heat waves or unusual atmospheric conditions affecting central Mexico. The dry season typically peaks in May, creating conditions favourable for elevated temperatures. On-chain mechanics mean positions settle in USDC on Polygon once Wunderground's historical data finalises, usually within 48 hours of the settlement window close. The midday cutoff is critical—afternoon thunderstorms common to Mexico City's geography could suppress final readings if they arrive before noon.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.