Highest temperature in Manila on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 30 June 2026, Manila is expected to experience daytime highs near 34°C at Ninoy Aquino International Airport, with heat indices potentially reaching dangerous levels due to high humidity. This real-world baseline frames the current Polymarket pricing, where the contract for "Highest temperature in Manila on June 30?" shows a 0% probability for the YES outcome in the lowest temperature bracket, while the frontrunner outcome sits at 31°C with 100% implied probability[1]. The market, settled on USDC via Polygon using conditional tokens, clearly disregards the possibility of temperatures falling below 30°C, aligning with historical June averages that typically reach 32°C in the city[2].

Historical data from late June 2026 reinforces this pricing logic; on 21 June, Metro Manila recorded a peak of 36.8°C, marking the hottest day of the year so far[8]. Furthermore, forecasts for 30 June indicate a maximum temperature of 34.3°C by 1:50 PM, well above the 30°C threshold[7]. These comparable cases suggest that the current 0% probability for lower brackets is not an anomaly but a reflection of consistent seasonal patterns where Manila routinely exceeds 32°C in June[2]. Traders should note that the market’s confidence in higher temperature brackets mirrors the region’s recent trajectory of record-level heat.

Key catalysts for traders include daily weather bulletins from Pagasa, which monitor heat index spikes that could push apparent temperatures toward 44°C, as seen in late May forecasts[3]. The upcoming UN Climate Report for 2026–2030, which predicts a 91% chance of global temperatures exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, further supports the likelihood of sustained high heat in Manila[5]. Traders must watch for real-time updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, as any sudden shifts in cloud cover or rainfall could alter the daily maximum, though current trends strongly favour temperatures well above 30°C[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.