Highest temperature in Manila on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Ninoy Aquino International Airport on 1 July 2026 will determine the settlement of this prediction market, with the market currently pricing a 34°C outcome at 100% probability and a 26°C or below outcome at 0% [1]. This on-chain contract, settled in USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens, reflects a crowd-implied certainty that extreme heat will dominate, despite the underlying event being a single day’s meteorological reading rather than a seasonal average.

Historical data frames this pricing as plausible yet sensitive to seasonal shifts; July falls within Manila’s wet season, where average temperatures range from 26°C to 31°C, with daytime highs typically reaching 31°C amid very high humidity [2][3]. While April is traditionally the hottest month, recent records show 34°C peaks in nearby regions like Laoag and Catbalogan as of late June, suggesting that 34°C is not an outlier for the broader Philippines in summer [9]. However, the 0% probability for cooler outcomes implies traders are disregarding the wet season’s cooling effect, betting instead on a heat spike.

Traders must monitor Tropical Depression “HENRY,” which is moving westward over the West Philippine Sea and has issued a thunderstorm watch for Greater Metro Manila as of 10:00 AM today [4]. This system, with sustained winds of 45 km/h and gusts up to 55 km/h, could suppress temperatures through cloud cover and rainfall, directly challenging the 34°C consensus. The PAGASA weather service and local civil defence updates will be critical dependencies, as any intensification of HENRY could invalidate the current market pricing before the settlement window closes on 2026-07-01T12:00:00Z.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Legit?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.