Highest temperature in Madrid on May 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The market on Polymarket is pricing this Madrid airport temperature contract at 0% YES, so the chain is effectively saying a sub-zero outcome is not being assigned any value at the moment. For settlement, the relevant reading is the highest temperature recorded at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport on 22 May, not the citywide forecast. On Polymarket, traders buy and sell USDC-denominated conditional tokens on Polygon, and the final payout will follow the Wunderground history page once the day is complete and the data are finalised.

Historically, late May in Madrid is already in warm, early-summer territory. Climate references for the city put average daytime highs in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius, with May often reaching the upper 20s on hotter days, while Madrid’s airport sits around 667 metres above sea level and can run a touch cooler than the urban core. Recent weather summaries for May show typical highs of roughly 22–26°C, which means the main question is usually whether the day lands in a mild, warm, or briefly hot band rather than anything extreme. Extreme records are far above normal conditions; Madrid’s all-time high is 40.7°C, but that is not a useful baseline for this specific one-day market.

A trader should watch the actual observed conditions at Barajas through the day, especially the midday and afternoon peak, because the highest reading there will decide the range. There is no election-style schedule or policy release to track; the only dependency is the final Wunderground station log. In practical terms, the key inputs are sunshine, cloud cover, wind, and any passing showers over central Spain, all of which can shift the day’s maximum by a few degrees. Forecast pages for Madrid in May generally point to dry, bright weather with highs in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius, which is consistent with why the market is clustered away from the extremes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.