Highest temperature in London on June 1?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 1 June 2026, London City Airport's weather station will record a daily maximum temperature. The market settles to whichever range bracket contains that single highest reading, measured in Celsius and sourced from Wunderground's historical data. Currently, Polymarket prices all outcome brackets at effectively zero, suggesting traders view the event as either too distant for meaningful pricing or that no single range has emerged as consensus favourite yet.

London's June temperatures cluster around 18–22°C on average, with historical highs occasionally reaching 28–30°C during warm spells. The Met Office records show June 2022 saw a peak of 26.1°C in central London, whilst June 2015 recorded 27.8°C. These benchmarks frame the likely settlement range; outcomes below 20°C or above 32°C remain statistical outliers for the month, though neither is impossible. The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's immaturity rather than certainty about the outcome itself.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the UK's seasonal weather patterns as spring 2026 progresses. The Atlantic Oscillation index, jet stream positioning, and any high-pressure systems developing over continental Europe in late May will signal whether June opens warm or cool. Polymarket's conditional token structure means positions can be acquired cheaply now, but liquidity may remain thin until late May when forecasters issue their month-ahead outlooks. Settlement depends entirely on Wunderground's historical archive for London City Airport (EGLC), making data availability the sole technical dependency.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.