Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 25?

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Market context

On 25 May 2026, Istanbul will record its highest daily temperature at Atatürk Airport (LTFM), the official NOAA monitoring station. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% probability on Polygon, meaning no trader has committed USDC to any outcome conditional token yet. This reflects the extreme distance to settlement—nearly eighteen months away—rather than any meteorological certainty. Once the market activates closer to May, traders will arbitrage between the crowd's implicit forecast and their own models, with winning positions redeemable in USDC against the final NOAA reading.

Istanbul's May temperatures show consistent patterns across decades of records. The city typically records highs between 24–28°C during late May, with extremes occasionally reaching 30°C on unusually warm years. The 1998–2024 historical range suggests the most probable outcome clusters around 26–27°C, though the long settlement window means climate anomalies or seasonal shifts remain unpriced. Comparable late-spring markets on Polymarket have resolved across their full range distributions rather than concentrating at single outcomes, indicating genuine uncertainty rather than consensus.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Turkish meteorological forecasts released in May 2026, particularly any heat-wave warnings from the Turkish State Meteorological Service. Broader European weather patterns—Atlantic blocking systems or North African heat advection—will drive outcomes. The NOAA data feed itself carries operational risk; any station maintenance or data gaps could delay resolution, though historical LTFM records show reliable reporting. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on 25 May, locking in whichever range contains the day's peak temperature.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.