Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 25 May 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's maximum temperature in Celsius, and this market prices which range that reading will fall into. The 0% crowd probability currently assigned reflects the market's early state—the contract has not yet attracted meaningful liquidity or trader positioning on Polygon, leaving the conditional token pair (YES/NO USDC) essentially untested. Settlement depends entirely on the Observatory's finalised daily extract data, published after the measurement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date.

Hong Kong's May temperatures show consistent patterns worth examining. Historical data from the Observatory indicates May maximums typically range between 28–32°C, with occasional spikes above 33°C during early heat waves or when southwesterly flows dominate. The 2015 May average peaked at 31.2°C; 2020 saw a 34.6°C reading on 27 May. These precedents suggest the market's current zero probability on certain higher ranges may reflect trader caution rather than meteorological implausibility, though May remains cooler than June's typical 32–35°C envelope.

Traders should monitor the Asian-Pacific weather patterns developing in spring 2026, particularly the timing of the southwest monsoon onset and any early-season high-pressure systems tracking across southern China. The Hong Kong Observatory publishes extended forecasts roughly two weeks ahead; watching their seasonal outlooks in April and early May will clarify whether conditions favour above-average or below-average temperatures for that specific date. Any tropical cyclone activity or unusual upper-level patterns could shift expectations materially once the settlement window approaches.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.