Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 9?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 9 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in Celsius, and Polymarket traders are currently pricing all outcome ranges at zero probability—a technical artefact of how conditional tokens settle on Polygon when no liquidity has yet formed around specific brackets. The market will resolve to whichever temperature band captures the actual daily maximum once the Observatory publishes its "Absolute Daily Max" figure in the Daily Extract dataset, measured to one decimal place.

Hong Kong's June climate sits at the threshold between late spring and early monsoon season. Historical Observatory records show June daily maxima typically range between 29°C and 33°C, with occasional peaks above 34°C during heat waves driven by Pacific high-pressure systems. The 2015 heat wave produced a June daily high of 36.1°C; more commonly, the month averages around 31–32°C. Traders should note that June 2026 falls before the peak summer heating of July–August, making extreme outliers (above 35°C) less probable than mid-range outcomes (30–33°C), though the current zero-probability pricing reflects absent market depth rather than genuine forecasting consensus.

The relevant catalyst is the publication schedule of the Hong Kong Observatory's Daily Extract dataset, which typically updates within days of the observation date. Traders cannot settle positions until that data appears on the Observatory's climate information system. Monitoring the Observatory's operational status matters—typhoon season begins in earnest by June, and any tropical cyclone activity near Hong Kong could suppress temperatures or delay official data release, though such disruptions remain uncommon for early June observations.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.