Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 24?

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Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory has issued a Very Hot Weather Warning for 24 June 2026, with temperatures expected to soar past 34°C and reach as high as 37°C in the New Territories[7][5]. This contract on Polymarket currently prices the YES outcome—that the highest temperature falls into the lowest range—at 0%, reflecting near-total market consensus that extreme heat will push readings well above the baseline threshold.

Historically, June in Hong Kong has seen daily highs between 34.6°C and 35.6°C, with 2026 forecast to be above-normal in temperature[3][6]. The seasonal outlook confirms above-average heat for June–August 2026, making a 0% probability for the lowest range entirely consistent with comparable years and current climatic trends[1].

Traders should monitor the Observatory’s Daily Extract for the finalized Absolute Daily Max value, which will be published after data is confirmed[4]. The Very Hot Weather Warning issued at 6:45 HKT today signals immediate heat risk, and recent reports note temperatures hitting 34.6°C as the year’s hottest day so far[6][9]. Conditional tokens on Polygon, settled in USDC, will resolve once this official figure is released, so the key dependency is the timing of the Daily Extract update.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.