Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 2?

Market context

On 2 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% probability on Polygon, meaning traders have not yet committed USDC to conditional tokens representing any specific outcome band. Settlement hinges on the Observatory's published "Absolute Daily Max" figure in their Daily Extract dataset, which becomes available after the measurement period closes at noon UTC on that date.

Hong Kong's June temperatures are highly predictable within narrow bands. Historical data from the Observatory shows June daily maxima typically range between 29°C and 33°C, with the long-term average around 31°C. The city's subtropical monsoon climate produces consistent warm conditions during early summer, with variation driven primarily by whether the southwest monsoon has fully established or if tropical systems approach. Anomalies exceeding 34°C or falling below 28°C occur rarely in June, appearing in fewer than 5% of years across the Observatory's records.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather pattern forecasts released by the Hong Kong Observatory and regional meteorological services in May 2026, particularly any alerts regarding tropical cyclone activity or unusual monsoon behaviour. The timing of the southwest monsoon onset—typically mid-May to early June—will be the primary driver of whether temperatures cluster toward the cooler or warmer end of the normal range. Any significant weather system affecting the region in late May could shift June conditions materially, though such events remain probabilistically unlikely for a single day's reading.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 2? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.