Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the absolute daily maximum temperature in degrees Celsius on 5 July 2026, measured to one decimal place. This real-world event determines the market outcome, regardless of how the prediction contract is priced on-chain today.

Historical July data frames the current 0% YES probability for the 30°C bracket as potentially misaligned with seasonal trends. The Observatory’s seasonal forecast for July–September 2026 expects normal to above-normal temperatures, with daily highs in mid-July averaging 29.6°C to 29.7°C, and occasional peaks reaching 31°C or 32°C[1][2]. Past records show that 30°C is not an outlier; it frequently occurs during Hong Kong’s peak summer, suggesting the market may be underpricing warmer outcomes despite the crowd-implied dismissal[3][8].

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s upcoming “Daily Extract” publication, which finalises the official temperature once data is verified. Key catalysts include the ENSO status updates and climate model revisions that influence the seasonal forecast, as well as any sudden shifts in humidity or wind patterns that could suppress or elevate temperatures[1]. The settlement depends entirely on the Observatory’s published “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” figure, so delays in data release could postpone resolution[5]. Recent weather outlooks note humid, foggy conditions preceding temperature drops, which traders must weigh against the above-normal temperature expectation[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 5? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Legit?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.