Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 27?

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Market context

The underlying real-world event is the peak temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on 27 June 2026, with the market currently pricing a 0% chance for any outcome below 33°C. On Polymarket, this contract sits on the Polygon network, settled in USDC, where conditional tokens reflect the crowd’s absolute conviction that the heat will exceed 33°C. The pricing mechanism here is not abstract speculation but a direct aggregation of on-chain bets, mirroring how similar contracts for 25 and 26 June resolved at 35°C and 33°C respectively with 100% certainty[1][3].

Historical data frames this probability as rational rather than reckless; June in Guangzhou is notoriously hot and humid, with the highest recorded temperature reaching 36.6°C and average daily highs climbing between 32°C and 33°C[2][9]. The subtropical high-pressure system dominates this period, suppressing cloud cover and driving temperatures upward, while rainfall averages 280 mm with occasional heavy storms that rarely cool the air significantly[2]. Traders should note that typhoons may occur, yet the prevailing pattern in recent years shows consistent highs well above 30°C, making the 0% probability for cooler outcomes a reflection of robust seasonal trends rather than market error.

Key catalysts to watch include the daily weather forecast updates from AccuWeather, which project daily highs between 87°F and 91°F (30.6°C–32.8°C) for June 2026, and any sudden typhoon announcements from the China Meteorological Administration[4]. While typhoons could disrupt the heat, the current forecast suggests stable high-pressure conditions, and traders must monitor real-time Wunderground data for the Baiyun station as the settlement window closes[2]. The dependency on these specific meteorological inputs means that any deviation from the predicted 30°C–33°C range would be the primary driver for price movement, though current on-chain sentiment remains firmly anchored to the hotter end of the spectrum.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

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What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.