Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 6 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport will determine the outcome of a weather contract priced at 0% YES on Polymarket, implying the crowd expects the reading to fall outside the defined range. This binary market settles on USDC via Polygon, using conditional tokens to lock positions until the Wunderground daily record for ZGGG confirms the final Celsius value.

Historical data frames this near-zero probability as a mispricing risk rather than a certainty. July is Guangzhou’s hottest month, with daytime highs routinely spanning 34–37°C and extremes exceeding 38°C, while average daily highs cluster around 31°C (91°F) [1][2][3]. The city’s subtropical monsoon climate ensures long, hot summers from May to September, with July delivering the most sunshine hours annually and humidity often surpassing 80% [1][8]. Past July records show temperatures reaching 39°C (102°F), making a sub-range outcome statistically unlikely despite the current crowd sentiment [5].

Traders should monitor real-time Wunderground updates for ZGGG as the primary catalyst, alongside any typhoon forecasts that could suppress peak temperatures through heavy thunderstorms typical of July–September [1]. No official weather announcements are scheduled, but the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 6 July, requiring immediate verification of the day’s maximum before resolution [1]. The contract’s dependency on a single station’s daily peak means even a brief heat spike above the range threshold flips the outcome, rendering the 0% price vulnerable to late-day volatility.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Legit?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Legit? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.