Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on 1 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, which currently shows a 0% probability for the “YES” resolution. On Polymarket, this contract is priced at 0% on the USDC/Polygon chain, reflecting the crowd’s view that the event is virtually impossible under current conditions. The market resolves based on the daily high temperature from Wunderground for the station, with settlement ending at 12:00 UTC on 1 July 2026.

Historically, July is Guangzhou’s hottest month, with average highs around 33°C and extremes often surpassing 38°C. Notably, the highest temperature ever recorded in Guangzhou was 39.1°C on 1 July 2004, suggesting that extreme heat on this date is not unprecedented [4]. However, recent years have shown more variability, with some July days staying below 35°C despite overall warming trends in China [5]. This contrast frames the current 0% probability as a cautious bet against an outlier event, rather than a dismissal of seasonal heat.

Traders should monitor real-time temperature updates from Wunderground and any official heatwave announcements from local meteorological authorities. A recent report from China Daily noted that China experienced its hottest July on record in 2023, with the highest average temperature since 1961, indicating a potential upward trend in extreme heat events [5]. Conditional token liquidity on Polygon may shift if early temperature readings approach 38°C, so watching the first few hours of data on 1 July will be critical for timing entry or exit.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Legit?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Legit? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.