Highest temperature in Chongqing on June 26?

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Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport on 26 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Polymarket prices this contract today with a 0% implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting the market expects the temperature to fall outside the specific range offered. This zero-percentage stance is stark, yet it aligns with the on-chain mechanics where conditional tokens on the Polygon network are settled in USDC, reflecting a collective bet against the event occurring rather than a nuanced view of the weather itself.

Historical data frames how to interpret this current probability. Chongqing’s hot season runs from 20 June to 9 September, with average daily highs exceeding 85°F (29.4°C) [2]. The city is notorious for extreme heat, having recorded 149 days above 40°C since 1951, with a peak of 43.2°C in August 2022 [5][8]. Recent June events show similar intensity; a subtropical ridge pushed peak temperatures toward 31–32°C on 21 June 2026 [4]. Given this consistent pattern of June highs well above 30°C, the 0% probability likely indicates the market expects the temperature to exceed the upper bound of the offered range, not that heat is absent.

Traders should monitor the subtropical high-pressure ridge’s position over the Sichuan Basin, which drives peak temperatures in this region [4]. Key catalysts include daily weather bulletins from Wunderground, the official resolution source, and any sudden shifts in regional wind patterns or cloud cover that could suppress daytime highs [3]. While no specific announcement has been made for 26 June, the seasonal dependency on the ridge’s strength remains the primary variable. If the ridge intensifies as it did earlier in June, temperatures will likely surge past 32°C, rendering the current zero-percentage bet on the lower range a logical, albeit aggressive, market position.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chongqing on June 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.