Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport on 2 July 2026 is the real-world event determining this market’s outcome. Historically, July is Chongqing’s hottest month, with average daily highs around 33°C and routine peaks between 34°C and 37°C[1][6]. In extreme cases, temperatures have approached 40°C, while the city’s famed humidity can push perceived heat to 38°C[4][7]. Given that the current crowd-implied probability for a 27°C maximum sits at 0%, the market correctly reflects that such a cool reading is virtually impossible against decades of scorching summer data[5].

Traders should monitor Chongqing’s ongoing rainy season, which runs from June to August and can temporarily suppress peak temperatures[2]. While cloud cover and precipitation are the primary variables, no major weather announcements have been issued yet for early July. The settlement relies exclusively on Wunderground’s recorded high for the day at the Jiangbei station, meaning any sensor anomalies or data gaps could alter resolution[5]. With Polymarket pricing this contract today on the Polygon network using USDC and conditional tokens, the on-chain mechanics ensure transparent, automated settlement once the 2026-07-02T12:00:00Z window closes, regardless of abstract weather theories.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Legit? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.