Highest temperature in Chengdu on June 20?

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Market context

Polymarket is pricing the **highest temperature at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on 20 June 2026** at **0% YES**, so the contract is effectively saying the market sees no value in the relevant range at today’s price. On Polymarket, that view is expressed with **USDC** on **Polygon** through conditional tokens, so the live price is the best read on where traders think the airport station’s daily maximum will land.

For context, June in Chengdu is typically warm to hot rather than extreme: common guidance puts daytime highs around **28–33°C**, with monthly averages near the low 30s Fahrenheit equivalent only in the broader warm-season sense, and WeatherSpark classifies the hot season as running from mid-May into September.[3][4][6] That means a high in the upper 20s or low 30s Celsius is normal, while a materially higher reading would need stronger-than-usual heat. Against that background, a 0% implied probability suggests traders are either anchoring on a modest airport reading or discounting the chance of an outlier spike at the official station.[3][4][6]

The main catalysts are the day’s actual weather evolution, especially any early-morning cloud cover, afternoon convection, or a short-lived heat burst before showers, because the market settles on the **single highest reading** recorded at the Wunderground airport station.[9] Traders usually watch the local forecast updates for Chengdu, plus any signs of rain or humidity suppressing daytime heating; AccuWeather’s June outlook for Chengdu still shows a wide daily high range extending into the low 30s Celsius, which leaves room for movement if conditions turn unusually hot.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on June 20? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.