Highest temperature in Beijing on May 25?

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Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 25 May 2026 will be measured at Capital International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The market currently prices at 0% for all outcome ranges, reflecting the settlement window's distance and the absence of any near-term catalyst. On Polymarket, traders are staking USDC on Polygon to acquire conditional tokens representing discrete temperature bands—typically 15–20°C, 20–25°C, 25–30°C, 30–35°C, and above 35°C—with payouts determined once Wunderground finalises the day's peak reading.

May temperatures in Beijing historically cluster between 25 and 32°C, with the 30-year average high around 28–29°C. The city's late spring weather is shaped by advancing monsoon moisture and occasional cold fronts from the northwest; extremes above 35°C are uncommon in May but not unprecedented. Comparable years—such as May 2018, when Beijing recorded 35.6°C—demonstrate that outlier heat is possible, though the modal outcome remains the 25–30°C band. Current pricing at zero reflects the market's immaturity rather than a genuine forecast that all temperature ranges are impossible.

Traders monitoring this contract should track China Meteorological Administration seasonal outlooks and any El Niño or La Niña signals issued in early 2026, as these influence northern hemisphere spring temperatures. Urban heat island effects at the airport station—a developed area near Beijing's core—tend to amplify recorded highs relative to surrounding regions. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 25 May, allowing only morning trades before Wunderground's historical data becomes final.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.