Highest temperature in Beijing on June 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport on 28 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data for Beijing in June shows daily highs typically climbing above 30°C, rarely dipping below 23°C or exceeding 36°C, with July being the hottest month overall[2][6]. Recent years have witnessed extreme heatwaves, including a record-breaking 41.1°C in June 2023, the city’s hottest June day in over 60 years, shattering previous benchmarks amid scorching conditions[5][9]. This context suggests that a 0% probability for temperatures below 28°C aligns with the region’s consistent trend of hot summer days, where temperatures frequently surpass 30°C unless cold air or rain intervenes[3].

Traders should monitor official heatwave forecasts and weather bureau announcements from the China Meteorological Administration, particularly as the settlement window closes on 28 June 2026 at 12:00 UTC. Recent reports indicate that Beijing has experienced multiple intense heatwaves, with temperatures soaring above 41°C during the strongest wave from 21 to 30 June in prior years, highlighting the volatility of summer weather patterns[7]. On-chain mechanics on Polymarket, including USDC settlements on the Polygon network and conditional token trading, reflect current market pricing where the frontrunner outcome is 34°C at 100% probability, indicating strong crowd confidence in extreme heat[1]. No moralising is needed; the facts show that historical precedents and recent climate trends support the market’s current pricing structure.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Legit? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.