Highest temperature in Beijing on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport on 5 July 2026 will determine the market outcome, with the current crowd-implied probability for a "YES" result sitting at 0%. On Polymarket, this contract is priced with 34°C as the frontrunner at 59%, while 33°C holds 25%, reflecting USDC liquidity on the Polygon network and the conditional tokens structure that drives on-chain pricing.

Historical data frames this probability, as July is Beijing’s hottest month, typically seeing daytime highs between 25°C and 33°C, with maximums reaching 38°C or higher during heatwaves [2][5]. Recent records show Beijing breaching 41°C in June 2023, shattering prior records as heatwaves returned [9], while the Hong Kong Observatory’s 5 July 2026 forecast lists Beijing’s range at 23°C to 32°C with thunderstorms [8]. These comparable cases suggest that while 34°C is plausible, the 0% crowd-implied probability may understate the risk of extreme heat.

Traders should monitor the National Meteorological Centre’s daily forecasts and any announcements regarding heatwave warnings or thunderstorm schedules, as these dependencies directly impact temperature outcomes. The resolution source is Wunderground’s recorded high for all times on this day at the airport station, making real-time weather updates critical [1]. A sudden shift in cloud cover or rainfall could suppress temperatures below 33°C, altering the conditional token distribution and USDC settlement values.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Legit?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.