Trump out as President by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket's conditional tokens on Polygon are pricing the likelihood of Trump's departure from the presidency before 30 June 2026 at roughly 1%, with YES tokens trading near $0.01 per unit against a $1 settlement value. That valuation reflects the market's assessment that a sitting president would need to resign, face successful removal via impeachment and Senate conviction, or be declared unfit under the 25th Amendment within an 18-month window—an outcome traders currently regard as remote.

Historical precedent offers limited guidance. Richard Nixon remains the only president to resign (1974), doing so under imminent impeachment threat after the Saturday Night Massacre and mounting evidence in the Watergate investigation. No president has been removed via Senate conviction; Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton both survived impeachment trials. The 25th Amendment's Section 4 removal process, which requires vice-presidential and cabinet action followed by congressional supermajority override, has never been invoked to remove a sitting president, though it was briefly considered during the final days of Trump's first term in January 2021.

Traders monitoring this contract should track developments around ongoing legal proceedings—Trump faces multiple indictments with trial schedules potentially extending into 2025—alongside any statements from Vice President JD Vance or cabinet members regarding fitness for office. Congressional composition matters; removal via impeachment would require two-thirds Senate majorities. Health emergencies or unexpected political developments could shift the calculus, though the current 1% pricing suggests the market assigns negligible probability to such scenarios materialising before the June 2026 settlement date.

Methodology

We track Trump out as President by June 30? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.